Watch for Discards
By Ralph Welton
This is one of a series of Declarer Play articles. These articles build upon each other, so I recommend that you study them in order.
So far we've covered...
- the importance of counting winners
- the Bridge Bears' assumption about counting defensive skaters (a shortcut so we don't need suit-length probability charts)
- how the bidding helps us count splits and defensive skaters
- how to read the lead for more accurate counting
If you haven't seen those pages yet, you may want to read them before coming back here.
On this page, we'll see how discards are a definitive answer about the exact number of defensive skaters.
example 1
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Dummy ♣ T 8 2 You ♣ K 6 |
Let's do a quick review of using the bidding and the opening lead to test split assumptions.
West leads a club against your 3N contract. How many clubs do the defenders have?
| West | North | East | You |
| – | 1♥ | P | 2♦ |
| P | 2♠ | P | 3N |
What does the bidding reveal about the length of West's club suit?
The opening lead is the ♣7. East plays the ♣J. How many lower spot cards are "missing"?
There's nothing unusual about thinking opening leader could have one of the missing spot cards, giving him a five-card suit. At this point we have no reason to reject the split assumption. So we will make our plans based on a 5-3 split.
example 1 (repeated)
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Dummy ♣ T 8 2 You ♣ K 6 |
The Play of the Hand
During the play, East follows suit twice in clubs, then discards on the third round.
We know they have a total of 8 clubs (because we have 5), and we also know how many of their 8 East had. So we no longer have any doubt about the split in clubs. What is the split?
Be alert to when an opponent discards. A discard makes all of our assumptions, analysis, and speculations old news. The discard settles the issue. If the split of the club suit matters, it's time to revise your plan for declaring the hand.
Little Bear asks, "If discards are so perfect for figuring out the split, why do we bother with all those other uncertain ways of figuring out splits?"
You have more than stuffing in that head of yours, Little Bear! That's a very good question.
Sometimes we can wait for a discard before we decide what to do about the actual split of a critical suit.
But most of the time, we need to make a plan right away, as soon as we see the dummy. Discards won't happen until later in the play, and by then it may be too late to start planning.
So we use split assumptions, the bidding, and the opening lead to make plans we can implement sooner – before discards happen.
Often discards confirm that our plan is indeed good, but be alert for times when a discard suggests our plan needs to be revised.
example 2
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Dummy ♦ A Q 6 4 2 You ♦ J T 5 |
You have the majority of the diamonds, including a nice five card suit in Dummy.
Of course you hope to establish Dummy's spot cards as skaters. What is the split assumption?
You lead the ♦J, covered by the ♦K, and you win the ♦A, while RHO follows suit.
Next you lead Dummy's ♦2, and RHO discards. Oh-oh. It doesn't look like they're splitting the way we hoped. Of course you win this trick with your ♦T.
If you play your last diamond master (♦Q) on the third round, will your 2 small diamonds then be skaters?
You have two diamond spot cards left in Dummy, and LHO only has one diamond left. You could still develop one fifth-round diamond skater by leading diamonds and making him play his winner.
example 2 (repeated)
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Dummy ♦ A Q 6 4 2 You ♦ J T 5 |
Now let's start over and try a different variation.
You lead the ♦J from your hand, intending to finesse, while hoping for future skaters. But LHO discards.
How many skaters can you establish?
How many tricks can you win with honors?
When you lead the ♦J and LHO discards, would it be OK to play Dummy's ♦A to prevent RHO from winning the trick?
example 3
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Dummy ♠ K 6 You ♠ A 7 5 4 3 2 |
If the split assumption turns out to be correct, how many skaters can you establish?
If the spades do indeed split 3-2, how many spades must you lose before you can cash your skaters?
How many rounds must you play to discover whether or not the split assumption is correct?
Heads up! Suppose you see a discard on the second round...
If you see a discard on the second round, what is the split?
After a second round discard, how many spades must you lose before you have any skaters?
After that unfavorable second-round discard, how many skaters can you eventually establish?
And now it gets as bad as possible...
Suppose you see a discard on the first round. The split is 5-0. How many skaters can you eventually establish?
How many tricks must you lose before you can cash your skater?
Little Bear comments, "That 5-0 split means the spade honey pot is almost empty to begin with. Do I have other suits where I can get an extra winner faster, without losing 3 tricks first?"
I hope so, Little Bear. Many contracts would go set if the defenders get 3 unexpected spade winners!
At least such horrible 5-0 splits occur only very rarely. But when they do occur, you must see the early discard so you know what's happening and can change your plans accordingly.
Pay attention to the actual cards discarded
We've seen that early discards help us diagnose the split of the suit led.
Now we'll turn our attention to how discards help us figure out the split of the suit discarded.
example 4
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Dummy ♠ K Q 6 You ♠ A 7 5 3 |
You have three high card winners.
You have 7 clubs, so they have 6.
You can hope for a favorable split so you'll also have a skater. What split is that?
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Dummy ♣ K Q 6 |
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West ♣ J 4 |
East ♣ T 9 8 2 |
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You ♣ A 7 5 3 |
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But if the clubs split 4-2 (or worse), there will be no skater.
Unless...
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Dummy ♣ K Q 6 |
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West ♣ J 4 |
East ♣ T 9 8 2 |
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You ♣ A 7 5 3 |
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Suppose the defender with the four-card club holding cannot follow suit when someone leads spades (or hearts, or diamonds). He must discard something and chooses one of his clubs. That reduces the split from the original 4-2 to only 3-2 remaining.
You can pick up a 3-2 split with your 3 master cards and have a skater.
Why would a defender make such a discard, giving you an extra skater?
Because he doesn't know what you hold in your closed hand. He doesn't know his four small clubs stop you from developing a skater. So he lets one go... and later regrets it.
Actually, he'll only regret it if you notice his club discard and later realize your three club masters have captured all the rest of their clubs, giving you a skater.
But if you don't remember that he discarded a club, you will see his partner fail to follow suit on the third round and think there is one more club outstanding (a 4-2 split). You would be fooled into believing you have no skater.
Little Bear says, "I get confused with 4-2 splits that might turn into 3-2 splits. Their 6 cards can't turn into 5 cards. So... I just get confused."
Instead of thinking about splits, you could count their actual cards. You know they have 6 clubs. Start counting them when the first discard appears – that's 1 club. When they both follow suit to your first master, that's clubs 2 and 3. If they both follow suit to your second master, that's 4 and 5. Your third master extracts number 6, and that's all they had. So your last club is a skater.
"Yes," Little Bear says happily. "I think that might work better for me. I'll try it that way."
example 5
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Dummy ♥ A 9 6 You ♥ K Q 4 3 |
What split would give you a skater?
You cash your ♥A and your ♥K, both following suit. Can you tell yet if you have a skater?
Suppose you cash your third master card, and RHO discards. What do you conclude?
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Dummy ♥ A 9 6 |
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West ♥ J 8 7 |
East ♥ T 5 2 |
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You ♥ K Q 4 3 |
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However...
Suppose East has made an early discard from a 3-card holding. Now he won't follow suit to your third heart master. He will discard another suit.
If you didn't see his original heart discard, the one that happened before you start playing your heart masters, you will think West still holds another heart and you will think you have no skater when there actually is one.
When there is an early discard, you must see what suit is discarded and remember it. Otherwise, you may later miscount that suit and draw the wrong conclusion about skaters. You know you're going to be counting hearts to see if you have a skater, so start as soon as you see a heart discarded. Say to yourself, "One heart played."
example 6
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Dummy ♠ T 3 2 ♥ A 9 6 ♦ K 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 6 You ♠ J 9 4 ♥ K Q 4 2 ♦ A 7 ♣ A 7 5 3 |
Your contract is 3N. How many winners do you have?
The opening lead is a 4th best spade, the ♠5. There are no missing lower spot cards. What does the lead tell you?
Everyone follows suit to three rounds of spades. On the fourth round of spades, RHO must make a discard. You should watch carefully to see if he throws a card that might help you count a critical suit correctly.
What kind of suit might that be? There are two suits where you must count their cards accurately so you will know if you have a skater. Which two suits?
If RHO discards a diamond, might that help you?
Whatever suit RHO discards, remember it.
Now let's look at your own hand. When the defenders cash the fourth round of spades you are out, so you must pick another suit to discard. Before you choose a discard, remember that you need one more winner to make your contract. Don't throw it away!
example 7
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Dummy ♠ 7 ♥ K 9 8 3 ♦ A 8 5 4 2 ♣ Q 3 2 You ♠ A J 6 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 7 6 ♣ A K 7 6 5 |
Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is ♠5. RHO plays the ♠9.
What is the split assumption for spades?
How many winners do they have?
You only need one more winner to make 3N.
Little Bear says, "This is an easy hand. The split assumption for clubs is 3-2, so I can get 2 club skaters for an overtrick. Even if clubs split 4-1, I can lose a club and establish one skater. I have all the aces, so getting the lead back will be no problem."
Good plan, Little Bear. You win the opening lead with your ♠J. But when you lead a club, LHO discards ♥4. Oh no... the clubs are not splitting. Can you still lose a club to get one club skater?
Before we continue with our analysis, what are you supposed to remember?
Now that we know what to remember, we can go back to our analysis.
Clubs cannot give us the extra trick we need. They split too poorly.
How about diamonds? If diamonds split as favorably as possible (3-3), you could play 3 rounds (losing two of them) to develop fourth and fifth round skaters. That would give you the trick you need plus an overtrick.
Little Bear says, "I like overtricks! I think I'll try that."
Not so fast Little Bear. You need to count how many tricks it would give them if you lose 2 diamonds.
When they win the first diamond, they would switch back to spades and force out your ♠A. And when they win the second diamond, how many spade winners could they cash?
example 7 (repeated)
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Dummy ♠ 7 ♥ K 9 8 3 ♦ A 8 5 4 2 ♣ Q 3 2 You ♠ A J 6 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 7 6 ♣ A K 7 6 5 |
You cannot afford to lose 2 diamonds, because they would cash their spade skaters and set your contract before you can cash diamond skaters.
So clubs and diamonds don't work. No extra trick in those suits.
Now look at hearts. What can you hope for in hearts?
You play low hearts from both hands, both opponents following suit. Remember we are counting their hearts, not yours. What is your new count of hearts played?
They force out your ♠A. And now it's time to see if you are going to make your contract.
You cash your ♥A on the second round of hearts, and both follow suit. No problem yet. What is the heart count?
Then when you lead to Dummy's ♥K, one opponent follows suit and the other discards. Now what should you do?
Whenever there is a suit where the split matters, such as when you might or might not have skaters, you must see and count any discards in that suit.
Let's look at another example where you must see and count discards in a suit where you hope for skaters.
example 8
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Dummy ♠ 7 5 4 ♥ K 8 5 3 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ A K 4 You ♠ T 8 6 3 ♥ A Q 2 ♦ A K Q 3 ♣ 9 5 |
This is a challenge hand about seeing and counting discards.
Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is a fourth-best ♠2.
Let's count and plan.
You need one more winner. Where might you get it?
How many winners do the defenders have?
example 8 (repeated)
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Dummy ♠ 7 5 4 ♥ K 8 5 3 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ A K 4 You ♠ T 8 6 3 ♥ A Q 2 ♦ A K Q 3 ♣ 9 5 |
The play begins with...
The defenders cash their 4 spade winners and continue with a club, which you win.
You could decide to test for a skater in either hearts or diamonds first. You pick hearts and cash your three top honors. One of the defenders discards on the third round. Little Bear whispers to me, "A 4-2 split means no heart skater."
Next you cash your top three diamonds, and once again a defender discards on the third round. Little Bear repeats his conclusion, "No skater in diamonds either."
What mistake(s) did Little Bear make?
Let's go back and talk about the play right before you played hearts. How many defensive discards were made before the first round of hearts?
If it turns out there is NO heart skater...
....you must play diamonds next, counting their diamonds to see if you have a skater.
They were dealt 6 diamonds. To have a skater you must see all 6 played before you try to cash your fourth diamond. So, add previous diamond discards to diamonds you see when you play your three masters.
How many defensive discards would there be before you start playing diamonds?
If both hearts and diamonds have skaters, will you make an overtrick?
We've seen how it can be important to watch their discards so we know which suits are splitting favorable and which are not.
Now we're going to turn our attention to learning how to prevent the opponents from cashing all their skaters when we lose the lead.
Go to the next topic:
Bridge Bears is run by a retired teacher and ACBL life master who has 35 years teaching experience and who's been playing bridge for over 50 years. I don't claim to be one of the top players, but I do understand how slowly beginners need to go when they are trying to learn how to play bridge.