Listen to the Bidding

♠ ♥ ♦ ♣

This is one of a series of Declarer Play articles. These articles build upon each other, so I recommend that you study them in order.

When you declare a no trump contract, your count-and-plan must include how many winners the defenders have – both high cards and skaters.

Counting their cashable high card tricks is easy – they have all the high cards you don't.

But counting their skaters can be a multi-step process.

We start with the Bridge Bears' split assumption for counting skaters. It tells us to assume their cards split as evenly as possible, without hitting it exactly. Then we'll look for additional information to confirm or reject that assumption.

On this page, we'll see how reviewing the bidding can help.

example 1

Dummy
♠ T 8 2

You
♠ K 6

Left Hand Opponent (LHO) leads a 4th best spade.

They have 8 spades, so the Bridge Bears' shortcut for counting skaters tells us to assume the split is 5-3.

Next we look for clues in the bidding that suggest a 4-4 split or a 6-2 split is a better assumption.

If you're not sure how many cards are promised by your opponents' opening bids and overcalls, perhaps you should review those pages before you tackle this one.

West	North	East	You
2♠	P	P	2N
P	P	P

For this hand, the bidding is definitive.

How do the spades split?

A weak two opening bid promises a 6 card suit, so that's what LHO has. We discard our 5-3 assumption. The split is 6-2.

Of course it's possible that LHO has made a mistake, or lied, with his bidding. But in the long run we are far better off if we believe the opponents' bidding, and draw appropriate conclusions.

example 2

Dummy
♥ 7 5 2

You
♥ K 9 3

West leads a 4th best heart. What is the starting split assumption?

We assume 7 cards will split 4-3.

West	North	East	You
1♥	P	P	1N
P	P	P

What suit length does the 1♥ opening bid promise?

1♥ promises a 5+ suit. So... reject the 4-3 assumption and plan for a 5-2 split. Yes, it's possible the split is 6-1, but we don't (yet) have any evidence that West has more than 5 hearts.

example 3

Dummy
♣ T 8 2

You
♣ K 6

West leads a small club. What is the starting split assumption?

They have 8 clubs, so we assume clubs split 5-3.

Next we test our assumption by reviewing the bidding.

West	North	East	You
1♣	P	P	1N
P	P	P

What suit length does a 1♣ opening bid promise?

A 1♣ opening bid doesn't promise a specific length. He could have 3, 4, 5, 6.... So we stick with the 5-3 assumption... for now.

We reviewed the bidding and didn't find a reason to reject our original 5-3 assumption. The next several pages will cover additional sources of information about split assumptions. If they too offer no new insight into the split of the club suit, we will base our planning on a 5-3 split.

example 4

Dummy
♥ T 8 2

You
♥ K 6

West's opening lead is a 4th best heart. What is the starting split assumption?

They have 8 hearts, so we assume hearts split 5-3.

West	North	East	You
1♣	P	P	1N
P	P	P

When West opens 1♣, we can't tell much about the split of his club suit. But the 1♣ bid tells us a great deal about the split of the heart suit.

Is our 5-3 assumption for the heart split confirmed?

No. If West held 5 hearts he would have opened 1♥, not 1♣. So their 8 hearts must split 4-4.

example 5

Dummy
♠ 5 4 3

You
♠ A T 8 6

West leads a spade spot card. What is the starting split assumption?

They have 6 spades, so we assume a 4-2 split.

Now review the bidding.

West	North	East	You
–	–	–	1♣
1♠	P	P	1N

After a 1♠ overcall, is the 4-2 assumption confirmed?

No. An overcall suggests a 5+ suit. Reject the 4-2 assumption. Plan on a split of 5-1.

You are allowed to ask East how frequently West overcalls on four-card suits. The answer can help you choose between a 4-2 and 5-1 split assumption.

example 6

Dummy
♥ 7

You
♥ A 9 3

The opening lead is a small heart. What is our split assumption?

The assumption for 9 cards is a 5-4 split.

Now review the bidding.

West	North	East	You
3♥	DBL	P	3N
P	P	P

Is the split assumption confirmed?

No. The 3♥ preemptive bid shows a 7 card suit. The split is 7-2.

★ You should not wait for the bidding to be over before you start thinking about what it tells you. As soon as West opens 3♥, you should be thinking, "7 card suit, weak hand."

example 7

Dummy
♥ 2

You
♥ Q T 8 6

West leads a heart. What is the starting split assumption?

They have 8 hearts, so we assume the split is 5-3.

West	North	East	You
1♦	1♠	P	1N
P	P	P

How many hearts does West have after opening the bidding with 1♦?

He has only 4. He didn't open 1♥, so he doesn't have 5+ hearts. Reject the 5-3 assumption. When he leads a 4th best heart, the split is 4-4.

example 8

Dummy
♠ 7 4 3

You
♠ A J

West leads a small spade. What is our split assumption?

They have 8 spades, so we assume the split is 5-3.

Now let's review the bidding.

West	North	East	You
–	–	P	1♦
1♠	DBL	2♠	2N

How many spades does West have?

An overcall normally shows 5 or 6 cards. And his partner's raise shows 3+ support. Overcaller can't have 6 or there wouldn't be enough spades left for his partner to raise. So a 5-3 split is virtually certain.

example 9

Dummy
♦ 9 8 4

You
♦ K 7 3

This hand shows how considering two factors together, the bidding and the suit led, can produce a more accurate assessment of the split.

West leads a diamond spot card. How many diamonds do they have?

They have 7 diamonds.

What is our split assumption for diamonds?

We assume 7 diamonds will split 4-3.

West	North	East	You
–	–	–	1♣
DBL	1♥	1♠	2N

Normally West would lead spades after his partner showed a spade fit. But he didn't. He led diamonds. Why? He must believe he has far better chances of defeating 2N than by leading a suit with a known fit (spades). Otherwise he should lead the suit his partner bid.

So... How many diamonds does West have?

He has 5 diamonds. Without 5, he has far less chance of developing enough tricks to defeat 2N on his own. And with 6+ diamonds, he would have overcalled in diamonds instead of doubling. The diamond split is not 4-3; it's 5-2.

Just to double check... Is it consistent with West's takeout double that he could hold 5 diamonds?

Yes. Ideally, West's take out double would show 4=4=4=1 distribution (four cards in each of the unbid suits). But he could have 3=4=5=1, or 4=3=5=1, or even 4=4=5=0. The equals signs mean the suit lengths are exactly the numbers shown, in order of ♠ ♥ ♦ ♣.

example 10

Dummy
♠ 7 4 3
♥ K 7 6 3
♦ 8 4 2
♣ A 4 3

You
♠ K 8
♥ J T 8
♦ A Q T 5
♣ Q T 7 3

This time we again consider two factors together, hcp and the bidding.

West leads a small spade. What is our split assumption?

They have 8 spades, so we assume the split is 5-3.

There are 40 hcp in the whole deck. Add yours to Dummy's. How many total high card points do the opponents have?

You have 19 hcp, so they have 21.

Now let's review the bidding.

West	North	East	You
–	–	P	1♦
P	1♥	P	1N

Both East and West had an opportunity to bid at a low level, but didn't. If one of them had most of their 21 hcp, he would have bid something. That tells us that their hcp are divided between the two of them.

So what? How does that help us evaluate our split assumption?

Well... with their hcp divided, West has the strength for a 1♠ overcall that he didn't make.

He's led a spade, but he didn't overcall 1♠

How many spades does he have?

He has only 4 spades. If he held 5, he may well have overcalled. The spade split is 4-4.

The examples on this page illustrate how the bidding can help you make more accurate split assumptions. There can even be useful information when your opponents pass.

plush toy bear Little Bear says, "I can follow what you say in these example hands, but I've never done it. So I don't think I'm going to be any good at it. How important is it, really?"

Me: "It's a skill you must develop, eventually. But you can work into it slowly, by starting with hand diagrams and bidding sequences from books and here on Bridge Bears. Then you have all the time you need to consider each bid slowly and carefully. With practice, reviewing the bidding will become almost automatic."

plush toy bear Go to the next topic:

Read the Lead

Bridge Bears is run by a retired teacher and ACBL life master who has 35 years teaching experience and who's been playing bridge for over 50 years. I don't claim to be one of the top players, but I do understand how slowly beginners need to go when they are trying to learn how to play bridge.