The Dangerous Opponent

This is one of a series of Declarer Play articles. These articles build upon each other, so I recommend that you study them in order.

The concept of an opponent being "dangerous" or "safe" is related to what might happen if he gets to lead. (Of course I mean dangerous to your contract – he's not going to sneak away with your honey-filled pastry.)

example 1

The defenders can drive out our ♥A to establish tricks in hearts.

Before they play hearts we consider both defenders to be safe because they have not yet established their hearts as winners. Neither opponent could put your contract in immediate danger with the first lead of hearts.

As long as we can still capture either defender's lead with our heart master card, we consider both of them to be safe.

But after our ♥A is gone, both opponents would become dangerous. Then either one could lead a heart and they could cash as many heart winners as they were dealt.

example 2

In the previous example, both defenders started out safe because we still had the master card in hearts. Then, when our ♥A was gone, both became dangerous.

Now suppose we start with the ♥K instead of the ♥A.

In this case, West starts out safe and East starts out dangerous.

Why?

• West starts out safe because he cannot make a heart lead that puts our contract in immediate danger. If West makes the first heart lead, our ♥K will be promoted by playing last – similar to having the ♥A. They would not be able to cash their whole heart suit without giving up the lead to your ♥K. So West starts out safe.
• But East starts out dangerous. He could indeed make a heart lead that would put our contract in danger. With the lead coming from our right, we might get our ♥K squished. They could then cash all their hearts without giving up the lead, which would be very bad for our contract. So East is dangerous.

example 3

East has a very threatening club suit. If Dummy's ♣K gets squished, East could take 6 club tricks.

But that can only happen if West leads clubs. So West is the dangerous opponent.

If East leads a club, Dummy's ♣K plays last and becomes a winner. So we call the East hand safe.

example 3 (repeated)

Even if you can't see their cards (and you're not supposed to peek...) you can tell which opponent is dangerous. Only West can lead through your ♣K and possibly get it squished. He's dangerous.

example 3 (repeated)

Curiously, if East is on lead, and he decides to play his ♣A and another club (giving you a trick with your ♣K), the dangerous hand switches.

After those two club plays, East would have 4 club skaters to cash. That makes him dangerous.

How many clubs would West have left? show answer

Would West be dangerous or safe? show answer

example 3 (repeated)

And now, our final variation. If East is on lead, and he leads a low club, we must win the trick with our ♣K. Only one round of clubs has been played.

Who's dangerous? show answer

example 4

West leads a spade against your 3N contract. East plays the ♠J, and you win with your ♠K.

Think about what the bidding tells you about the spade split before you continue.

After you win the opening lead with your ♠K, are both opponents dangerous? show answer

example 4 (repeated)

Now let's start over. West leads a small spade and East plays his singleton ♠J.

Suppose you decide to let East win this first trick.

Is East safe or dangerous? show answer

Is West safe or dangerous? show answer

Summary:

• If you win the opening lead with your ♠K, you get a winner, but West becomes dangerous.
• If you decide not to win the opening lead with your ♠K, you may never get a spade winner, but West is safe.

example 5

Before playing to the opening lead, we count and plan.

Take inventory:

Your contract is 3N. LHO opened the bidding with 3♠ and his opening lead is a spade.

You need nine winners to make 3N. How many do you have? show answer

You have chances for a ninth winner in three different suits.... one of which is guaranteed to develop a winner. Which suit has a guaranteed future extra winner? show answer

Assess the threat:

After you win the first trick, West holds six spade winners. He is clearly dangerous as you have no more spade stoppers. But East is out of spades, so he is safe.

On some hands, East could lead a different suit and get the lead over to his dangerous partner. However, on this hand you have master cards in all the other suits, so there is no such danger.

Losing a trick to a safe opponent is like having an extra stopper. They can't cash all their winners in the critical suit when you have a stopper, and they can't cash all their winners in the critical suit when you lose the lead to a safe opponent.

example 5 (repeated)

Make a plan:

You can take the club finesse in either direction, arranging for either East or West to play last to the finesse.

We know which hand is safe and which is dangerous. Let's look at two different club finesses to see which finesse is safe.

Option 1: If you decide to play the club finesse by leading the ♣3 toward Dummy's ♣AJ, would it be a safe or dangerous finesse? show answer

Safe. Only East's safe hand playing last can win this trick. West's dangerous hand cannot win the finesse because, if West plays the ♣Q in second seat, you will squish it.

Taking this safe finesse guarantees your contract. If the ♣J wins, it's the one-more-trick you need. And if your ♣J loses to East's ♣Q, your ♣T is promoted and becomes the one-more-trick you need.

Option 2: If you decide to cross to the ♥Q and lead ♣5 toward your ♣KT, would it be a safe or dangerous finesse? show answer

If you take this club finesse in the wrong direction, your contract could fail. Your partner is too polite to say anything while she watches the dangerous opponent cash spade after spade. But she may wonder if the gift jar of crystallized honey she has for you can be returned for a refund.

example 6

Suppose you have reason to believe that West has at least a 5-card heart suit. And you win West's opening lead with your ♥Q. (East must not have the ♥A, or he would have played it.)

If East later gets to lead hearts, your ♥K would be finessed and squished. West would then cash his entire heart suit. That would be bad for your contract.

So after you win the opening lead, would you consider East to be dangerous or safe? show answer

After you win the opening lead, is West dangerous or safe? show answer

Now let's put these hearts into a full hand.

example 7

East is the dealer and passes. You open the bidding with 1♦ . West overcalls 1♥ and you end up declaring 3N.

West leads the ♥J (no surprise that he leads hearts...), and Partner puts down a nice dummy. You offer the customary comment, "Thank you, Partner," and begin your hand analysis.

Take inventory:

You need 9 winners. How many do you have? show answer

How many heart stoppers do you have? show answer

What is the split assumption for hearts, and do you believe it? show answer

example 7 (repeated)

Assess the threat:

After your ♥Q wins the opening lead, West has 4 hearts remaining. If East wins a trick in another suit and leads a heart, your ♥K will be finessed and West will cash all 4 of his remaining hearts. That would be one trick for East and 4 tricks for West, setting your contract. So it would be very dangerous to lose a trick to East.

However, if West wins a trick in another suit, he could not cash his entire heart suit because your ♥K plays last and would become a stopper. So it would be safe to lose a trick to West.

Make a plan:

You need one more trick to make 3N. Where might you get the extra trick you need? Look at each suit and decide what the possibilities are before checking each answer.

♠ ♥ ♦ ♣

Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4   You ♠ K J

1) You have lots of promotable lesser honors in spades, so you could cash your top honors and force out the ♠Q, coming to 4 spade tricks. However, if you do this you cannot control who wins the ♠Q. If it's a dangerous hand that gets the lead, this would be a terrible plan.

2) We need to make sure that the dangerous hand does not get the lead. If you lead from dummy and play the ♠J, only West can win your finesse. We've already figured out that he's safe, so this is good. You get the one extra trick you need if the ♠J wins. But it might surprise you that you would end up with more tricks if the finesse loses to West's ♠Q. Dummy's lesser honors would be promoted, giving you 4 spade tricks instead of only 3 when the finesse wins.

3) There's a third way you could play the spade suit. You could lead the ♠J from your hand, and play low in dummy. Then only East can win the trick. However, East is dangerous, so this is risky. On this deal you have no need to take risks. Reject this line of play.

Little Bear says, "My head is spinning. 3 winners, 4 winners, 5 winners, East, West, safe, dangerous, finesse or not. Can we take a break for a snack?"

Me: "Of course, my four-footed friend. But you can't hibernate. If we take a break, you have to come back and sort out this answer before we move on."

example 7 (repeated)

You must establish another trick without taking the risk of losing the lead to dangerous East. There's only one suit where you can do that. Which suit? show answer

The play will start with you winning the opening lead in your hand with the ♥Q. What card will you lead next?

♠J ♥K ♦Q ♣2

Correct. Well done. You must get the lead over to the dummy so you can finesse in spades. Win this trick with one of Dummy's club honors. Then lead Dummy's ♠4 toward your ♠J, finessing into West's safe hand.

A challenge question....

This is the exact same hand from example 7.

To review...

The hearts are 5-2. West has 5. East has 2. You need one more trick, and you can't afford to let them cash their entire heart suit. The opening lead is ♥J. Look at the diagram and try to remember how to play this hand.

You are just finishing up your planning, when West leads ♥T at trick two. Oops... It turns out, you accidentally played the ♥6 on the opening lead, and lost the trick! You're embarrassed, but you win this second trick with your ♥Q.

You can still make your 3N contract, but circumstances have changed. The cards dealt to each player have not changed. But something very important has indeed changed. (Hint: this page is about safe and dangerous opponents.) What's different? show answer

Hearts have now been played twice, so West has heart skaters ready to cash, starting with his ♥A. That makes him dangerous. But East is now safe because he started with only 2 hearts, both of which he's played.

So... if you win the ♥Q on the opening lead (as we did in example 7), West is safe. But if you duck the opening lead and win the ♥Q on the second round (as we did accidentally for this challenge problem), East is safe.

What card will you lead from your hand after you win the ♥Q on the second round?

♠J ♥K ♦Q ♣2

example 8

As expected from the bidding, West leads a diamond against your 3N contract.

Take inventory:

You're pleased to have two diamond winners – 2 stoppers. (Your ♦Q is promoted by playing last.)

You count the diamonds and do a split assumption. Then you reject the assumption. How do you know the split assumption is wrong? show answer

You win the opening lead with your ♦Q.

example 8 (repeated)

Assess the threat:

Is West's hand safe or dangerous? show answer

After winning the opening lead with your ♦Q, is East's hand safe or dangerous? show answer

Now suppose you lose the lead while developing tricks, and they lead diamonds a second time. When your second diamond stopper is gone, is West safe or dangerous? show answer

Is East now safe or dangerous? show answer

I hope you noticed that safe and dangerous hands can change as the play progresses.

Now let's put these diamonds into a full hand so we can make a plan.

example 9

Take inventory:

The opening lead against your 3N contract is a diamond, which you win with your ♦Q.

The bidding tells you the diamonds split 6-2.

They have only one winner (♣A). They need 4 more to set your 3N contract.

You have four winners (♠A, ♥A, ♦AQ). To make 3N, you need at least 5 more.

Assess the threat:

You will win the opening lead with your ♦Q. If you later lose the lead, they will drive out your ♦A, establishing 4 diamond tricks. After that, you must not lose the lead again to a dangerous opponent.

When both of your stoppers are gone, who will be dangerous and who will be safe? show answer

example 9 (repeated)

Make a plan:

After you win the opening lead, you will need to develop 5 more winners. You cannot get 5 additional winners from any one suit, so you will have to develop 2 suits.

You can get 4 winners by driving out their ♣A. Does it matter which opponent has the ♣A? show answer

Next the opponents will drive out your second diamond stopper.

You will still need one more winner. Think about safe and dangerous hands... Will you lead the ♠Q from Dummy to finesse, or will you lead the ♥T from your hand to finesse?

♠Q ♥T

All the Bridge Bears are smiling. If your ♥T wins, you will still have the lead in your hand to lead another heart and repeat the finesse.

With the ♥K on-sides, you will make 12 tricks – 1 spade, 5 hearts, 2 diamonds, and 4 clubs.

And if the ♥K is off-sides, you will lose the finesse to a safe hand. You will then come to 11 tricks, losing only the ♣A and the ♥K. Little Bear will be very happy with the overtricks.

Notice that it's risky to play hearts before clubs. If the heart finesse loses while East still has a diamond, he will clear away your second stopper, establishing West's diamonds as skaters. You still need another trick, so you lead clubs. The problem is, West might have the ♣A and cash all his diamond skaters.

Transferring the Lead

When you have a marginal card that would benefit from playing last, you would like to pick which opponent is on lead. If the dangerous opponent is on lead, you can sometimes arrange for the lead to be passed over to his safe partner.

example 10

Take inventory:

What is the split assumption for hearts? show answer

Assess the threat:

East is safe. If he leads a heart, your ♥K will play last and be promoted.

West is dangerous because he can lead through your ♥K. If your ♥K gets squished, they could cash their entire heart suit. So you should look for ways to avoid this bad result.

Make a plan:

Suppose West makes a 4th best opening lead of the ♥7. Rather than risk your ♥K, you could play low from Dummy. Then East will play third-hand-high to prevent you from winning the trick cheaply.

Let's take a peek at the East and West cards.

There's no realistic hope of winning the trick with your ♥8, but ducking this first trick transfers the lead over to East, who is safe. If he continues hearts, your ♥K will be promoted, which is often better than risking it on the first round of hearts.

And if he switches to another suit, you may gain crucial time to establish your tricks before they establish their hearts.

example 11

West opens with a weak-two in hearts (a 6 card suit). Partner makes a takeout double, and you jump to 3N.

The opening lead against your 3N contract is the ♥8, East plays the ♥Q and you win with your ♥A. You expected West to have both missing heart honors for his 2♥ opening, so you're disappointed not to win this first trick with your ♥J.

Then you remember that you were supposed to do your count and plan before you played to the first trick. Oh, well... you hope it's not too late to stop and think now.

Take inventory:

Count winners for both sides. show answer

example 11 (repeated)

How many extra winners might you get in each suit?

♠ ♥ ♦ ♣

Even if all these finesses lose, you will have 3 additional winners – just enough. Of course, you will not be playing hearts yourself, though you will be happy if West leads hearts and presents you with the gift of a second heart winner.

What is the heart split? show answer

Assess the threat:

Hearts is the only suit where the defense can establish enough tricks to threaten your contract.

After the first trick, when you win the ♥A, is either opponent safe? show answer

Yes, West is safe. If West later leads hearts a second time, your ♥J will be promoted by playing last. It would become a second stopper and a second heart winner for you.

It's nice that West is safe, but...East is dangerous. He has 1 heart remaining to lead. Your ♥J would be finessed and West would cash 5 heart tricks. So if you give East the lead, you hope Partner is in a forgiving mood and all the rest of the Bridge Bears are busy with counting and planning for their own contracts so they don't see how you unnecessarily lost a trick to a dangerous opponent. :(

example 11 (repeated)

Something to be aware of...

After you win the first trick, suppose you lose the lead to West, and he continues hearts. When your ♥J is gone, would the safe and dangerous opponents be the same? show answer

Make a plan:

The first time you risk losing the lead, it must be to West's safe hand. Which suit(s) have possible finesses that would be safe? show answer

These three possible finesses are not equal. From worst to best...

• The spade finesse is least favorable because, even if it "wins," the ♠Q will be covered and you will have only one extra trick – one promoted lesser honor (♠J). You do not have enough spades to hope for a skater.
• The diamond finesse is better because, if it wins, the ♦T will be covered and you will have 2 extra tricks – 2 promoted lesser honors (♦9 and ♦J). Unfortunately, your new winners will be blocked, with no small diamond in the dummy to lead to the ♦J in your hand. You can unblock them, but you will have to be careful to do so before you run out of entries to your hand.
• The club finesse is best because, if it wins, the ♣J will be covered and you will have 2 extra tricks – 2 promoted lesser honors (♣9 and ♣T). The suit will not be blocked and you will have club winners in both hands to use to cross the lead for future finesses into whichever hand is safe at that time.

example 11 (repeated)

Suppose you take the safe club finesse, it loses, and West returns a heart. You will have 8 winners – ♠A, ♥AJ, ♦AK, and ♣AKT. You will need another winner. So what will you do if West wins your club finesse and returns a heart? show answer

Instead.... Suppose West wins your club finesse and does not return a heart. Instead he returns a club. Then you will have only 7 winners – 1 spade, 1 heart, 2 diamonds, and 3 clubs. You will need two more. West will remain the safe opponent because his hearts are still not ready to cash. What will you do if West wins your club finesse and returns a club? show answer

Keeping track of which opponent is safe as the play progresses, lets you take safe finesses into his safe hand, and make your contract.

example 12

The opening lead is ♠5.

If you play the ♠Q from Dummy and the ♠K is on your left, your finesse will win. But West's ♠K will remain poised to squish your ♠J so you will only make two spade tricks.

If you play low in the dummy and the ♠K is on your left (as you expect), you could win three spade tricks – first playing last with the ♠J, then later finessing with your ♠Q. That would be great.

So you might be tempted to play the ♠7 from Dummy as soon as you notice this opportunity to take advantage of the favorable spade lead.

But I must caution you not to play from Dummy before you take inventory and assess the threat, including who's safe and who's dangerous. Then decide if playing low on the opening lead fits into your overall plan for the hand.

Let's see how that works...

example 13

Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is the ♠5.

Little Bear says, "We just looked at these spades. I bet it's going to be important to think before we play."

Me: "Yes, absolutely. Let's see what we can figure out."

Take inventory:

What is the split assumption for spades? show answer

How many winners does each side have? show answer

You need 4 more winners. You can get all 4 from the diamond suit.

Assess the threat:

You have two choices for what to play from Dummy on the opening lead. You can play second hand low, or you can win with the ♠A.

• If you play second hand low, you might get 3 spade tricks when the ♠K is on your left. But you will lose the first trick if the ♠K is on your right.
• If you play the ace, you will get the lead immediately, but you will never get 3 spade tricks.

Either way you would have at least 2 spade stoppers. So you will win the race to establish and cash your diamonds before they can establish and cash their spades.

example 13 (repeated)

But there's another kind of danger...

Check all four suits. If East wins the opening lead with his ♠K, which suit could he switch to that would create skaters for them (making both opponents dangerous) while they still have the ♦A to regain the lead? show answer

Make a plan:

You can win the opening lead and prevent the defenders from switching to clubs before you dislodge the ♦A.

You could then start diamonds at trick two. But can you win 9 tricks before they win 5 tricks? show answer

The exact number of tricks you will be able to cash depends on which suit they return when they play their ♦A, and if hearts split 3-3. Their best play is to clear the clubs, but they may well give you an extra trick by continuing spades.

Sometimes the danger is not in the suit that has been led, but in a switch to another suit. If they haven't started the danger suit, it's often correct to seize the lead quickly and start your own long suit, getting ahead in the race to establish the winners you need before they can switch suits and establish the winners they need.

Little Bear asks, "Is it always good to win the lead as soon as possible so I can establish my winners first?"

Me: "No, not always. Sometimes you need to delay winning your stopper until one of the defenders runs out of the danger suit. This is called a hold-up play. Then you can plan to lose the lead to that safe hand. In such cases, they may be able to establish their skaters, but they won't be able to cash them. It's OK for the safe hand to win the lead because he has no cards left in the danger suit."

We'll see how to do that on the next page.

The whole-hand examples on this page have been long and involved. If you found them difficult to follow, I suggest you review them before moving on to the next page.

Go to the next topic:

The hold-up play